18-month cash-path fanEvery path is recalculated from its own growth, margin, and cost assumptions
Business
Cash Runway Scenario Calculator
Compare three genuinely different operating futures on one liquidity horizon. The model compounds revenue under base, upside, and downside growth rates, applies scenario-specific contribution margins and fixed-cost changes, then reports the minimum balance, ending cash, first negative month, cumulative burn, and distance between paths.
Base ending cash-
Base minimum balance-
Base runway-
Upside ending cash-
Downside ending cash-
Downside runway-
Month-18 scenario spread-
Planning signal-
Downside month-18 liquidity relative to opening cash
Scenario liquidity fan
See when operating paths separate—and where financing becomes unavoidable
BaseUpside / downside envelope
| Month | Base revenue | Base cash | Upside revenue | Upside cash | Downside revenue | Downside cash |
|---|
Scenario design
Build three internally consistent futures—not a cosmetic percentage band
- Anchor all cases to the same opening cash and month-one revenue.
- Give base, upside, and downside their own monthly growth, contribution margin, and fixed-cash commitments.
- Use the downside case for financing lead time, not as a probability claim.
- Read the shaded fan as the cost of uncertainty at each month, then inspect the ledger where paths diverge.
- Replace assumptions when signed pipeline, staffing decisions, or vendor commitments change.
Path mechanics
Growth affects both the size and the timing of operating contribution
A strong margin does not repair liquidity instantly: it acts on the revenue available in that month. Fixed-cost responses can also make a downside plan more resilient than a superficially optimistic revenue path.
Detailed calculation process
Compound revenue, convert it to contribution, then roll cash forward
Revenue(s,m) = Starting revenue × (1 + Growth(s))^(m − 1)Operating cash flow(s,m) = Revenue(s,m) × Contribution margin(s) − Fixed cash cost(s)Closing cash(s,m) = Closing cash(s,m − 1) + Operating cash flow(s,m)Scenario spread(m) = Upside closing cash(m) − Downside closing cash(m)Here s identifies the named scenario, m is the month number, growth and margin are decimal rates, and all cash values use the entered currency per month.
Default case reading
Cost control partly cushions the downside, but it does not erase compounding loss
With the default inputs, the downside case combines shrinking revenue with a lower contribution margin and a lower fixed-cost response. The table makes the tradeoff auditable: compare downside contribution with the reduced fixed cost in each month, then locate the first negative balance if one appears.
Evidence to collect
Upgrade the assumptions before a board decision
- Weighted pipeline by expected close month
- Gross-margin bridge by customer or product
- Signed payroll and vendor commitments
- Cost actions with realistic effective dates
Boundary
This fan is conditional, not probabilistic
It omits working-capital timing, financing, taxes, and one-time events. Use the cash-flow calculator when collection lag or scheduled payments dominate runway.
Cash runway scenario FAQ
Questions that change scenario interpretation
Should fixed cost be the same in all cases?
Only when no management response is credible. Otherwise model the cost action explicitly in the relevant case.
Why can an upside case still consume cash?
Revenue contribution may remain below the entered fixed cash cost during early months.
Should the spread be treated as capital required?
No. Capital need is governed by the minimum or first negative balance in the chosen planning case.
Practical examples
Cash Runway Scenario Calculator in real planning situations
- Test whether a downside sales slowdown exhausts cash before month 18.
- Measure how margin recovery changes the minimum liquidity point.
- Separate a cost-control response from an optimistic revenue assumption.
Important note
Before relying on this result
Calculated from the entered values using the displayed accounting method. Reconcile material decisions with source records and applicable accounting policy.
Additional Cash Runway Scenario Calculator questions
Why use three independent assumption sets?
A percentage band around one output can hide nonlinear growth and margin effects. Each path is recalculated month by month.
Is the downside case a probability forecast?
No. It is a named stress scenario, not a confidence interval.
Can a scenario recover after going negative?
The table keeps later arithmetic visible, but the first negative month still marks a financing failure.
Does this include collection lag?
No. Use the cash-flow calculator when receipt timing is material.