24-month subscriber river and recurring-revenue crestThe vertical marker identifies the scheduled price change
Business
Subscription Pricing Forecast Calculator
Build a transparent 24-month subscription forecast from account movement rather than applying one top-line growth percentage. Each month retains customers after churn, adds new subscribers, applies expansion revenue, and introduces a scheduled price uplift. The schedule reports ending subscribers, MRR, ARR, cumulative churn, and revenue mix.
Month-24 subscribers-
Month-24 MRR-
Exit ARR-
Cumulative new subscribers-
Cumulative churned subscribers-
Net subscriber change-
Month-24 expansion MRR-
Price-uplift MRR effect-
Month-24 subscribers relative to opening base
Subscriber river forecast
Separate retained accounts, acquisition, expansion, and price in one coherent forecast
Retained + new subscribersMRR and price event
| Month | Opening subscribers | Churned | New | Ending subscribers | Price | Base MRR | Expansion MRR | Total MRR |
|---|
Cohort-flow setup
Forecast the subscriber stock before forecasting recurring revenue
- Start with active paying subscribers, not leads, trials, or registrations.
- Apply churn to the opening subscriber stock, then add the month’s new subscribers.
- Grow acquisition only when the channel plan supports it.
- Schedule the price uplift in its actual effective month.
- Keep account expansion separate from list-price changes so each growth lever remains explainable.
Subscriber river anatomy
Acquisition must outrun churn before the account base accelerates
The blue river is the retained opening population; the green layer is new acquisition. The purple line is MRR, which can rise faster than subscribers when expansion or a price uplift increases revenue per account.
Detailed calculation process
Roll accounts first, then price the ending subscriber base
Churned(m) = Opening subscribers(m) × Monthly churn rateNew subscribers(m) = Month-1 new subscribers × (1 + Add growth)^(m − 1)Ending subscribers(m) = Opening subscribers(m) − Churned(m) + New subscribers(m)Price(m) = Base price × (1 + Uplift), from the selected uplift monthBase MRR(m) = Ending subscribers(m) × Price(m)Total MRR(m) = Base MRR(m) × (1 + Expansion rate)Pricing-event interpretation
Separate mechanical price lift from customer behavior
The uplift effect holds the month-24 subscriber base constant and compares uplifted price with the original price. It does not assume that a price increase changes churn or acquisition; test those reactions explicitly in separate cases.
Month-one subscriber bridge
Prove the cohort roll-forward before reading month 24
Month 1 churn = 1,200 x 3% = 36 subscribersMonth 1 ending subscribers = 1,200 - 36 + 110 = 1,274Month 1 MRR = (1,274 x $49) x 1.05 = $65,547.30Applying the same order of operations for 24 months, including the 8% price uplift from month 13, produces 3,057 subscribers, $169,873 MRR, and $2,038,480 ARR in the displayed forecast.
Forecast evidence
Inputs worth segmenting outside this simple model
- Logo churn versus revenue churn
- Plan-level acquisition and conversion
- Expansion by customer age and cohort
- Grandfathered pricing and contract renewals
Recognition boundary
MRR is not cash and ARR is not booked revenue
Annual prepayments, invoicing lag, failed payments, taxes, and deferred revenue require a separate cash or accounting schedule.
Subscription pricing forecast FAQ
Questions about churn, growth, and price
Why apply churn before new subscribers?
It prevents new accounts from being churned immediately in the same modeled month.
Can subscriber count be fractional?
The engine retains fractional expected values for forecasting accuracy and displays rounded counts.
Does expansion compound?
The entered rate is applied to each month’s base MRR; it does not create a separate compounding account balance.
Practical examples
Subscription Pricing Forecast Calculator in real planning situations
- Forecast MRR with 3% monthly churn and steady acquisition.
- Schedule an annual price increase and see its ARR effect.
- Separate subscriber growth from expansion revenue.
Important note
Before relying on this result
Calculated from the entered values using the displayed accounting method. Reconcile material decisions with source records and applicable accounting policy.
Additional Subscription Pricing Forecast Calculator questions
Are churn and new subscribers applied in the same month?
Churn is applied to the opening subscriber base, then new subscribers are added.
What does expansion rate mean?
It adds recurring revenue per retained account from upgrades, seats, or usage.
Can the price uplift start after month 24?
The control is limited to the displayed horizon; set the uplift to zero if no change is planned.
Does the model include cash collection?
No. It forecasts earned recurring revenue; use the subscription cash-flow calculator for receipts.