18-month seasonal wholesale demand landscapeReturn erosion is cut directly from each monthly unit mountain
Business
Wholesale Pricing Forecast Calculator
Create an account-driven wholesale forecast instead of applying one top-line growth rate. Dealer additions and churn roll the active account base forward, seasonal demand changes units per dealer, returns reduce sell-through, and net sales, contribution, and inventory requirements remain visible month by month.
18-month net wholesale sales-
Month-18 active dealers-
Total net units-
Total returned units-
Total contribution-
Peak shipping month-
Peak inventory requirement-
Forecast signal-
Month-18 net sales relative to month 1
Dealer-demand landscape
See account growth, seasonal unit mountains, return erosion, and contribution together
Gross / returned unitsNet wholesale sales
| Month | Active dealers | Seasonality | Gross units | Returned units | Net units | Net sales | Contribution | Safety stock |
|---|
Forecast construction
Build wholesale demand from dealer accounts and sell-in behavior
- Start with active dealers placing orders, not every signed account.
- Roll the dealer base after churn and new account activation.
- Apply the visible seasonal profile to units per dealer.
- Remove returns and allowances before pricing net units.
- Size safety stock from the demand actually expected in each month.
Demand anatomy
Dealer growth and seasonal intensity create different inventory risks
A growing dealer base raises the entire demand floor. Seasonality creates temporary peaks. Return erosion reduces sell-through after gross demand, so it must not be hidden inside a lower price.
Detailed calculation process
Roll accounts, shape demand, and reconcile contribution
Active dealers(m) = Active dealers(m − 1) × (1 − Dealer churn) + New dealersGross units(m) = Active dealers(m) × Base units per dealer × Seasonality(m)Net units(m) = Gross units(m) × (1 − Return rate)Net sales(m) = Net units(m) × Wholesale priceContribution(m) = Net units(m) × (Wholesale price − Variable cost)Safety stock(m) = Net units(m) × Coverage monthsPlanning examples
Use the same forecast for sales and inventory conversations
Holiday build: a distributor increases the peak multiplier and reads the maximum safety-stock requirement before issuing purchase orders.
Dealer quality review: a higher churn rate may reduce account count, units, and contribution even when units per surviving dealer remain unchanged.
Eighteen-month unit reconciliation
Connect gross dealer demand to net sales and contribution
Net units = Gross units x (1 - 5% returns)Net sales = Net units x $28 wholesale priceContribution = Net units x ($28 - $13.50)The monthly dealer and seasonality schedule totals approximately 351,374 gross units. After 17,569 returned units, the displayed result is 333,805 net units, $9,346,533 sales, and $4,840,169 contribution; small differences from multiplying rounded totals come from retaining monthly decimals.
Forecast evidence
Replace the simple seasonal profile when POS data exists
- Dealer order history by month and territory
- Retail sell-through and weeks of supply
- Return, markdown, and allowance claims
- Lead times and minimum production quantities
Limitation
Sell-in is not consumer sell-through
The forecast does not model retailer inventory depletion, lost sales, reorder thresholds, or product mix.
Wholesale pricing forecast FAQ
Questions about seasonality and inventory
Why does seasonality repeat after month 12?
The 18-month horizon repeats the visible annual demand pattern for months 13–18.
Are returned units added back to inventory?
No. Their recoverability and timing require a separate returns-flow model.
Should safety stock use gross or net units?
This model uses net expected demand; use gross demand when returned stock cannot be resold promptly.
Practical examples
Wholesale Pricing Forecast Calculator in real planning situations
- Plan inventory for a fourth-quarter seasonal peak.
- Test how dealer churn changes net wholesale sales.
- Measure the contribution effect of higher returns without changing list price.
Important note
Before relying on this result
Calculated from the entered values using the displayed accounting method. Reconcile material decisions with source records and applicable accounting policy.
Additional Wholesale Pricing Forecast Calculator questions
How is seasonality applied?
The entered peak multiplier follows a visible monthly profile whose average remains near one.
Are returns treated as lost units?
Yes. Returned units reduce net units and net sales in the same modeled month.
Does the forecast include retail sell-through?
Only indirectly through units per dealer and returns; use retailer POS data when available.