Four-week internal-load river beside a recovery-context trajectoryLive current inputs
Health & Fitness
Training Recovery Trend Calculator
Compare four weekly session-RPE loads with four recovery-context ratings, quantify both slopes, and identify divergence when training load rises while wellbeing falls.
Weekly load slope-
Wellbeing slope-
Week 1 to 4 load change-
Week 1 to 4 wellbeing change-
Load variability-
Load-wellbeing correlation-
Trend pattern-
Interpretation boundary-
LOAD-WELLBEING CONTROL CHART
Four-week internal-load river beside a recovery-context trajectory
Both series are normalized to their own scales and joined by weekly divergence bands, preventing the larger load units from flattening the wellbeing signal.
WEEKLY TREND LEDGER
Load, wellbeing, and week-over-week movement
The register keeps raw values and directional changes visible before any correlation is interpreted.
| Week | Internal load | Load change | Recovery context | Context change | Divergence note |
|---|
TREND SETUP
Keep weekly definitions stable before interpreting direction
- Sum internal load with one consistent session-RPE method.
- Use the same recovery-context question every week.
- Avoid comparing partial weeks with complete weeks.
- Record illness, travel, competition, and life stress beside the series.
- Treat a four-point pattern as a prompt for review, not a forecast.
DIVERGENCE MATTERS
Rising load and falling wellbeing deserve attention even without a cutoff
The dual chart emphasizes divergence because an athlete can tolerate increasing load differently across phases.
Correlation from only four entered weeks is highly unstable. The page reports it for description and explicitly avoids converting it to an injury probability.
TREND METHOD
Compare direction and co-movement without claiming causation
Least-squares slopes summarize both four-week series. Pearson correlation describes co-movement in this small entered sample but cannot establish that load caused the wellbeing change.
Detailed calculation process and general formulas
m_L = sum((i-i_bar)(L_i-L_bar)) / sum((i-i_bar)^2)m_W = sum((i-i_bar)(W_i-W_bar)) / sum((i-i_bar)^2)CV_L = 100 x SD(L) / L_barr = cov(L,W) / (SD(L) x SD(W))D_i = z(L_i) - z(W_i)Symbols, meanings, and units
- L_i
- entered internal load in week iarbitrary units
- W_i
- entered recovery-context rating in week ipoints out of 10
- m
- least-squares weekly slopeseries units/week
- CV_L
- load coefficient of variationpercent
- r
- Pearson correlation of the four entered pairsdimensionless
TREND QUESTIONS
Read direction, variability, and context together
No single statistic carries the interpretation.
Load direction
-The load slope shows the weekly program trajectory.
Wellbeing direction
-The context slope preserves the athlete-reported response.
Co-movement
-Correlation describes the entered pattern only.
Decision takeaway: Investigate divergence and symptoms early; do not wait for a proprietary threshold or use correlation as proof of causation.
ANNOTATE THE SERIES
Events that can explain a weekly break
- Competition or testing week
- Travel and time-zone change
- Illness or medication
- Novel training modality
- Academic or work stress
- Sleep disruption
- Return from injury
Applied decisions
Two four-week patterns with different planning meaning
Load rises, context stable
Internal load increases gradually while the recovery rating stays near its baseline.
What the result clarifies: The pattern supports continued monitoring without claiming adaptation.
Load rises, context falls
Each load increase coincides with a lower recovery rating.
What the result clarifies: The divergence band widens and prompts a review of the plan and non-training stressors.
Worked default scenario
Current-input substitution and reconciliation
Method references
Evidence used to frame this specific model
Scope and limitations
This four-week trend is descriptive and cannot predict injury, illness, overtraining, or performance. Small-sample correlation is unstable. Pain, acute illness, neurological symptoms, chest symptoms, and professional restrictions require appropriate action regardless of the plotted pattern.
Training Recovery Trend Calculator | Four-Week Load and Wellbeing Control Chart FAQ
Why normalize the two lines?
Their raw units differ; normalization lets direction be compared without pretending the scales are equivalent.
Is a negative correlation bad?
It describes opposite movement in the four entered pairs, not a diagnosis or causal relationship.
Can I use more than four weeks?
This page is a four-week review; longer analysis should preserve the same definitions and annotate phase changes.
What if one week is incomplete?
Complete it or label it separately because partial weeks can distort slopes and variability.