Marketing & Advertising

Social Advertising Forecast Calculator

Build a month-by-month paid-social forecast that does not hold response constant while spend scales. Budget and auction cost grow independently, CTR decays with creative age, scheduled refreshes recover only part of the lost response, and the resulting impressions flow through clicks and purchase conversion into revenue and contribution.

Month-one media budget Monthly budget growth (%) Starting CPM Starting click-through rate (%) Landing-page conversion (%) Average order value Gross margin (%) Monthly creative fatigue (%) Creative refresh interval (months) Refresh recovery (%) Monthly CPM inflation (%) Forecast horizon (months)

Forecast revenue-

Total media spend-

Orders-

Blended ROAS-

Blended CPA-

Contribution after media-

Lowest modeled CTR-

Refreshes scheduled-

Creative fatigue forecast

Follow attention decay, refresh recovery, orders, and contribution month by month

CTR indexOrdersContribution

Attention sawtooth and commercial yieldRefresh markers restore part of lost click-through performance instead of resetting history

Month	Budget	CPM	CTR	Impressions	Clicks	Orders	Revenue	ROAS	Contribution

Paid-social forecasting method

Forecast response decay and creative recovery before scaling spend

Start with a budget, CPM, click-through rate, and purchase conversion rate that share one reporting window.
Inflate CPM separately from budget growth so impressions are not overstated.
Apply monthly creative fatigue to CTR.
Restore only the selected share of the lost response when a creative refresh occurs.
Convert impressions to clicks, orders, revenue, gross-margin dollars, and contribution after media.

Forecast symbols

Attention and auction prices move independently

B_mMedia budget in month m (currency/month).

CPM_mCost per thousand impressions (currency/1,000 impressions).

t_mClick-through rate after fatigue and refresh (decimal).

vClick-to-order conversion rate (decimal).

AAverage order value (currency/order).

gGross-margin rate (decimal).

fMonthly fatigue rate (decimal/month).

RCreative refresh interval (months).

Detailed calculation process

Turn the creative sawtooth into a commercial forecast

Impressions_m = B_m ÷ CPM_m × 1,000
CTR_m(before refresh) = CTR_(m-1) × (1 - f)
CTR_m(after refresh) = CTR_m + (CTR_1 - CTR_m) × recovery share

Clicks_m = Impressions_m × CTR_m
Orders_m = Clicks_m × v
Revenue_m = Orders_m × A
Contribution_m = Revenue_m × g - B_m

Worked first month

The default begins with 1.78 million impressions

Impressions_1 = $24,000 ÷ $13.50 × 1,000 = 1,777,778
Clicks_1 = 1,777,778 × 1.35% = 24,000
Orders_1 = 24,000 × 3.8% = 912
Revenue_1 = 912 × $92 = $83,904
Contribution_1 = $83,904 × 61% - $24,000 = $27,181

In month two the response rate falls by 7%. At the three-month refresh interval, the model restores 85% of the gap between the fatigued CTR and the original CTR instead of assuming a perfect reset.

Creative operating signals

Use data beyond ROAS

First-time impression ratio and frequency
CTR by creative age
Landing conversion by placement
CPM changes at comparable audience quality
Refresh dates and concept-level spend

Forecast boundary

Deterministic response, not platform delivery

The model excludes learning-phase volatility, bid constraints, attribution overlap, view-through conversions, inventory shortages, refunds, delayed revenue, creative production cash, audience saturation, and platform reporting revisions.

Social advertising forecast FAQ

Questions about fatigue and scaling

Why not hold CTR constant?

Repeated exposure commonly changes response even when budget and targeting remain unchanged.

Does a refresh restore all performance?

Only if recovery is set to 100%; lower values model an incomplete creative rebound.

Can budget rise while impressions fall?

Yes. CPM inflation can outpace budget growth.

Practical examples