Consequence sensitivity
Hold probabilities fixed and vary the loss consequence using documented low, central, and high cases. The weighted contribution identifies which estimate dominates expected downside.
Probability
Match Outcome Risk Calculator
Combine explicit win, draw, and loss probabilities with outcome-specific operational consequences to measure expected downside and adverse-event probability.
THREE-OUTCOME CONSEQUENCE RISK
Connect match probabilities to the consequence boundary that matters
Enter a complete win-draw-loss scenario and a consequence for each state. The model keeps average downside, adverse probability, and probability concentration separate so one headline cannot hide the shape of the risk.
Expected consequence-
Adverse probability-
Worst outcome-
Probability dispersion-
Probability total-
Risk band-
LIVE DECISION RECORD
Outcome contribution and adverse-boundary table
Each row shows the supplied probability, consequence, weighted contribution, and whether it reaches the current adverse threshold.
| Outcome | Probability | Consequence | Weighted contribution | Threshold status |
|---|
CURRENT CALCULATION PROCESS
Formula, current substitution, intermediate values, and reconciliation
E[C] = pW*cW + pD*cD + pL*cL; P(adverse) = sum p_i where c_i >= T
| Symbol | Meaning and unit | Current value |
|---|---|---|
| pW | Win probability, percent | 45 |
| pD | Draw probability, percent | 30 |
| pL | Loss probability, percent | 25 |
| cW | Win consequence, chosen unit | 0 |
| cD | Draw consequence, chosen unit | 20 |
| cL | Loss consequence, chosen unit | 80 |
| T | Adverse consequence threshold | 50 |
Waiting for valid inputs.
DECISION BOUNDARY
For operational match scenarios, not wagering
This page serves club operations, tournament, travel, staffing, and qualification planning when win, draw, and loss cause different downstream burdens. It accepts scenario probabilities rather than claiming to estimate them, and it never recommends a bet, price, or stake.
FIVE-STEP RISK WORKFLOW
Define the states before averaging them
- Write one operational decision and choose a single consequence unit tied to that decision.
- Enter win, draw, and loss probabilities from a documented scenario and confirm they total 100%.
- Estimate consequence independently for each outcome, including zero where no downside applies.
- Set the escalation threshold before inspecting the result to avoid moving the boundary after the fact.
- Compare expected consequence with adverse probability and retain the outcome contribution table for review.
RISK FUNDAMENTALS
Five concepts that keep chance and impact distinct
- Exhaustive outcomes
- Exactly one of win, draw, or loss is assumed to occur.
- Conditional consequence
- The entered impact applies only when its matching outcome occurs.
- Expected consequence
- The probability-weighted average across all three states.
- Adverse event
- Any state whose consequence meets or exceeds the fixed threshold.
- Probability dispersion
- Normalized entropy describes concentration across states, not the magnitude of harm.
FORMULA AND DEFAULT SUBSTITUTION
Trace the 45-30-25 scenario to 26 consequence units
E[C] = 0.45 x 0 + 0.30 x 20 + 0.25 x 80 = 0 + 6 + 20 = 26
At a threshold of 50, only the 80-unit loss state is adverse. Therefore `P(adverse) = 0.25 = 25%`. The expectation of 26 and tail probability of 25% answer different questions and should be retained together.
THREE DEEPER RISK MODULES
Stress the scenario where it can fail
Threshold governance
A threshold should come from an escalation policy, staffing trigger, or qualification rule. If it is chosen after results appear, adverse probability becomes vulnerable to motivated reclassification.
Probability provenance
Entropy can be high even when the scenario is well calibrated, or low when it is overconfident. Retain model date, data window, and analyst owner with the entered probabilities.
TWO OPERATIONAL CASES
One normal plan and one threshold boundary
Qualification travel hold
A draw creates 20 units of rescheduling work and a loss creates 80. The 26-unit expectation supports average resource planning, while the 25% adverse probability supports whether to reserve an escalation team.
Threshold set to zero
Every nonnegative consequence meets a zero threshold, so adverse probability is 100%. That is mathematically correct but usually signals that the policy boundary is too broad to distinguish escalation states.
MATCH RISK GLOSSARY
Six terms for the scenario record
- Scenario probability
- A supplied belief or forecast weight for one outcome.
- Consequence unit
- The common scale used for all outcome impacts.
- Weighted contribution
- Outcome probability multiplied by its consequence.
- Expected consequence
- The sum of the three weighted contributions.
- Adverse threshold
- The minimum consequence that triggers the defined event.
- Normalized entropy
- Three-state probability entropy divided by `ln(3)`.
LIMITS, DISCLAIMER, AND EVIDENCE
Where the three-state model stops
- Probabilities are user-supplied and are not estimated or calibrated by this calculator.
- Win, draw, and loss must be mutually exclusive and exhaustive for the same match definition.
- Consequences are linear, use one unit, and apply once per outcome; secondary chains and timing are excluded.
- The threshold uses a greater-than-or-equal rule, including outcomes exactly on the boundary.
- The page is an operational scenario aid and is not gambling, financial, legal, or medical advice.
Evidence to retain: probability source and timestamp, scenario owner, consequence worksheet, threshold authority, selected unit, and exported contribution table. Reapprove the scenario after lineup, venue, format, or operational-impact changes.
RELIABLE SOURCES
Primary probability references
MATCH OUTCOME RISK FAQ
Questions about boundaries and interpretation
What unit should I use for consequences?
Use one consistent unit across all three outcomes, such as lost points, staff hours, travel cost, or a documented internal impact score. The calculator does not convert between units.
Why must the probabilities total exactly 100%?
Win, draw, and loss are modeled as mutually exclusive and exhaustive. A missing or duplicated probability would make both expected consequence and adverse probability incoherent.
What does the adverse threshold do?
It labels every outcome whose entered consequence is at least the threshold, then sums those outcome probabilities. It does not change expected consequence.
Why can expected consequence be below the adverse threshold?
Expectation averages all outcomes. A severe but less likely loss can create material tail risk even when the probability-weighted average remains below the threshold.
What does normalized entropy mean here?
It describes how dispersed the supplied probabilities are across three outcomes. Near zero means concentrated in one outcome; near one means comparatively even, not necessarily safer.
Can this calculator recommend a bet or stake?
No. It is intentionally framed around operational consequences and omits price, bankroll, utility, market efficiency, and responsible-gambling safeguards.
IMPORTANT RISK NOTE
Expected downside cannot replace the outcome table
Two scenarios can have the same expected consequence and radically different tail behavior. Preserve the three probability-consequence pairs and the adverse threshold instead of circulating only one average.