Marketing & Advertising

Social Advertising Scenario Calculator

Compare three explicit paid-social operating paths without hiding all uncertainty inside one percentage. The conservative path changes auction cost and response, the base path preserves the entered plan, and the upside path separates creative lift, landing-page lift, and budget scale. Each path reports reach, frequency, orders, revenue, ROAS, and contribution.

Base media budget Base CPM Base CTR (%) Base conversion rate (%) Average order value Gross margin (%) Reachable audience Conservative auction premium (%) Conservative response loss (%) Upside creative lift (%) Upside landing lift (%) Upside budget change (%)

Recommended contribution scenario-

Conservative contribution-

Base contribution-

Upside contribution-

Base frequency-

Upside incremental cash-

Scenario frontier

Separate auction pressure, creative response, landing conversion, audience repetition, and budget scale

ConservativeBaseUpside

Reach–contribution–frequency decision mapHorizontal position is reach, vertical position is contribution, and bubble size is order volume

Scenario	Budget	CPM	CTR	Conversion	Reach	Frequency	Orders	ROAS	Contribution

Paid-social scenario method

Change auction pressure, creative response, landing response, and scale separately

Enter a base plan using one audience and attribution definition.
Apply the conservative CPM premium to auction cost.
Reduce conservative CTR and conversion without changing order value.
Apply the upside creative and landing lifts, then optionally change budget.
Compare contribution, reach, frequency, orders, and ROAS instead of choosing on revenue alone.

Scenario symbols

Each path owns a complete funnel

B_sMedia budget for scenario s (currency).

CPM_sAuction cost for scenario s (currency/1,000 impressions).

t_sClick-through response for scenario s (decimal).

v_sPurchase conversion for scenario s (decimal).

UReachable audience (people).

R_sEstimated unique reach (people).

F_sAverage frequency (impressions/person).

C_sContribution after media (currency).

Detailed calculation process

Build reach and economics from the same scenario assumptions

Impressions_s = B_s ÷ CPM_s × 1,000
Reach_s = min[U, Impressions_s ÷ (1 + 0.65 × Impressions_s ÷ U)]
Frequency_s = Impressions_s ÷ Reach_s

Orders_s = Impressions_s × t_s × v_s
Revenue_s = Orders_s × AOV
Contribution_s = Revenue_s × gross margin - B_s

Worked base path

The default base plan buys about 1.93 million impressions

Impressions = $28,000 ÷ $14.50 × 1,000 = 1,931,034
Clicks = 1,931,034 × 1.30% = 25,103
Orders = 25,103 × 3.50% = 878.6
Revenue = 878.6 × $98 = $86,102
Contribution = $86,102 × 62% - $28,000 = $25,383

The conservative path increases CPM by 18% and reduces response; the upside path applies separate CTR, conversion, and budget changes. Bubble size reflects order volume while frequency remains printed inside each scenario.

Scenario questions

Use paths for decisions

What if auction cost rises before response changes?
What if a better hook lifts CTR but not conversion?
Does added budget mostly increase repetition?
How much incremental contribution funds the upside test?
Which assumption requires the strongest evidence?

Scenario boundary

Directional reach approximation

Reach uses a saturation approximation rather than a platform forecast. The model excludes overlap across campaigns, creative fatigue through time, learning limits, attribution uncertainty, refunds, customer lifetime value, delayed cash, and inventory availability.

Social advertising scenario FAQ

Questions about the three paths

Why can higher budget reduce efficiency?

Additional impressions may raise frequency faster than unique reach.

Is the highest-contribution path automatically recommended?

It is the modeled winner, but assumptions and cash risk still require review.

Why change CTR and conversion separately?

Creative response and landing-page response arise at different funnel stages.

Practical examples