Real Estate
Industrial Property Cash Flow Calculator
Model industrial rent, downtime, annual escalation, tenant improvements, leasing commissions, operating costs, reserves, and debt service across a lease horizon.
Lease rollover runway
Test industrial cash flow through downtime, rent growth, and releasing costs
The model distinguishes steady occupied years from the rollover year when downtime, tenant improvements, and leasing commission consume cash.Time visualization
Lease cash-flow runway with rollover shock
Each column is annual after-debt cash flow; the hatched year absorbs downtime and releasing costs.Detailed calculation process
Rollover risk is the collision of lost rent and upfront capital
General symbolic formulas
Rt = R(1 + g)tNOI0 = AoR - AeL = ARtm / 12TI = AqLC = ARtcCFroll = ARt - Ae - D - L - TI - LCRent compounds to the renewal year. Downtime removes a fraction of that year’s potential rent; tenant improvement and commission are paid as separate releasing costs.
Symbol dictionary
A building area (ft²)o occupancy (decimal)R, Rt current and rollover rent ($/ft²/year)g annual rent growth (decimal/year)t years to rollover (years)m downtime (months)e, q operating and TI rates ($/ft²)c, D commission rate and debt service
Worked substitution with current inputs
Annual rollover schedule
| Year | Rent / ft² | Operating NOI | Rollover deductions | After-debt cash flow |
|---|
Use this page
- Enter current in-place economics.
- Set the actual lease-expiry horizon and downtime assumption.
- Stress TI and commission before sizing a reserve.
Two decisions
Early renewal: compare a lower renewal rent with avoided downtime and TI.
Speculative vacancy: increase downtime to a market leasing period.
Limitations
This simplified single-tenant view omits partial rollover, free rent, expense reimbursements, expansion options, monthly interest draws, sale proceeds, and probability weighting.
Industrial cash-flow FAQ
Why can a profitable property have a negative rollover year?
Large tenant improvements, commissions, and downtime are concentrated in one period.
Is rent growth guaranteed?
No. It is an entered scenario; local supply, building utility, and tenant credit govern achievable rent.
Should downtime reduce operating cost?
This model conservatively keeps full building operating cost; change the rate if a documented variable-cost reduction applies.